Forks of Salmon, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

343
FXUS66 KMFR 161154
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
354 AM PST Tue Dec 16 2025

.DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)...

Key Points:

* Today through tomorrow: Minor/Moderate Impacts
    - Moderate to isolated heavy rainfall
    - Snow level initially above 6000 feet today/tonight
        - Lowering below 4000ft Wed. but moisture dwindling
        - Light snowfall amounts Wednesday/Wednesday night
            - Cascades north of Highway 140
        - Strong Winds: Tonight through Wednesday morning
* Thursday to Friday night: Moderate to Isolated Major Impacts
    - Snow: Heaviest Friday/Friday night
        - Cascades north of Highway 140
        - Snow levels dropping to ~3500-4000ft Friday night
        - Snow amounts decreased significantly from 24hrs ago
    - Rain: Moderate to heavy rainfall for westside areas
        - Heaviest rainfall along and near the coast
    - Wind: Strong wind for coast and eastside areas

Further Details:

The overall upper level pattern continues to show persistent
troughing over/near the Gulf of Alaska with smaller pieces of energy
kicking out ahead of this main low pressure area. This will result
in multiple rounds of precipitation this week as energy aloft passes
through the PacNW.

For today, rainfall will start over northern California late this
morning, spreading north and east through the afternoon/night.
Rainfall will continue through Wednesday morning before tapering
off. Rainfall amounts will be highest across higher elevation of
Curry and Josephine counties as well as the Cascades and western
Siskiyou County. These areas have a 40%-80% probability for rainfall
rates of 0.25"/hr. These hourly rainfall rates will peak overnight
roughly 10pm to 5am Wednesday morning. These rates could briefly be
reached between 4pm and 9pm as well for mainly Curry and western
Siskiyou counties. Rainfall chances decrease significantly after
sunrise Wednesday morning, resulting in a break before the next
impactful round of precipitation starts Thursday.

On Wednesday, snow levels do drop low enough to allow accumulations
for areas at 4000 feet and above; however, we will also see QPF
significantly lowering. Not expecting notable snowfall accumulations
as these amounts will be relatively light. The bigger impact will
likely be the strong wind speeds for eastside areas and northern
California. Wind advisories and warnings are in place across
eastside areas of Oregon. Wind speeds will likely be strongest
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning with speeds dropping off through
the afternoon hours. The advisories/warnings go through the
afternoon, but we may see hazardous conditions ending before the
afternoon hours.

Snowfall Thursday through Friday night has seen significant
reduction in accumulations, but rainfall amounts will still be
notable as another atmospheric river event begins to unfold across
the region. While widespread flooding is not anticipated, there may
be isolated areas of nuisance type flooding as rivers are currently
running low. The heaviest rainfall through this stretch will be for
westside areas, especially along/near the coast. Timing for highest
amounts will be Thursday night through Friday afternoon. During this
stretch, the probability for 0.50"/6hr will be about 40%-75% for
westside areas, with the higher end probabilities for coastal areas
and western Siskiyou County.

Regarding snowfall Thursday through Friday night, we have seen a
notable decrease in snowfall amounts likely related to a recent
decrease in snow ratios. Ensemble data shows a wide range in amounts
as seen in the box and whisker plots; as a result, we may still see
further refinements to this time period as uncertainty exists. A lot
of this uncertainty revolves around temperatures aloft which
ultimately impact snow levels and snow ratios. Differences in QPF
are increasing uncertainty as well. In other words, certain
variables are not lining up well, and we may continue to see changes
to this forecast period, so please check back for updates as we get
closer to Thursday.

-Guerrero

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFs)...

This cycle will be noted with increased rainfall chances, limited
visibilities, and low clouds. This will ultimately lead to MVFR to
IFR conditions for all the terminals. There will likely be timing
updates and amendments as rainfall starts/ends and low clouds/fog
develops or transitions between flight categories. Wind speeds
will start to increase Wednesday morning which could lead to a
difficult forecast nailing down visibilities, especially if we
remained mixed in the boundary layer.

-Guerrero

&&

.MARINE...Updated 300 AM PST Tuesday, December 16,
2025...Conditions remain hazardous to small craft today with steep
west swell dominated seas. The next front is expected late today,
bringing another round of southerly gales that quickly switch to
the northwest, and remain strong through tonight. This will build
seas again, becoming very steep and hazardous tonight across all
waters, with gales expected north of Cape Blanco.

Winds ease late Wednesday morning, but seas will remain steep
through Wednesday night. Another, more persistent front will take
aim at the coast late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning,
bringing a longer duration of strong winds. Strong gales are
likely with this system, with a 20-30% chance of storm force
(>55kt) gusts possible north of Cape Blanco on Thursday morning.
Winds will gradually ease from north to south late Thursday night
into Friday morning, but seas are likely to remain steep to very
steep through Friday. Moderate to heavy rain will accompany each
front this week.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Wednesday
     for ORZ030-031.

     Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Wednesday for
     ORZ029>031.

CA...High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Wednesday
     for CAZ085.

     Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Wednesday for
     CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this
     afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Hazardous Seas Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST
     Wednesday for PZZ356-376.

     Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Wednesday for
     PZZ350-370.

&&

$$